8月5日，国际现货黄金价格创下2031美元/盎司的历史新高，2000美元/盎司大关被正式突破。在5个月左右时间里，金价大涨近600美元/盎司。随着金价屡创新高，世界黄金协会发布了权威深度分析文章《投资快讯|金价升至历史新高：冲刺还是马拉松？》。请看详细报道↓↓↓

过去几年中，黄金在整体上一直呈现出积极的态势。而全球新冠肺炎疫情的爆发，进一步凸显了黄金作为对冲工具的作用，并促进了其价格表现的提升。

Gold has been on a generally positive trend for the past few years. However, the onset of the global COVID-19 pandemic has made gold’s relevance as a hedge even more apparent and accelerated its price performance.

黄金价格（美元）在2020年上半年上涨了17%，在7月份继续攀升了10%。

Gold increased by 17% during the first half of 2020, moving up by an additional 10% in July.

最近的金价变动极快，加之黄金消费需求明显疲弱，可能导致短期内金价波动性上升。

The most recent price move has come fast, which, combined with markedly weak consumer demand, may result in higher gold price volatility in the near term.

然而我们相信，新冠肺炎疫情可能会给资产配置带来结构性变化，此外长期看来，也有充足的基本面理由为黄金投资提供支撑。

However, we believe the COVID-19 pandemic may bring structural shifts to asset allocation and that there are strong fundamental reasons supporting gold investment longer term.

再创历史新高

A new record high

7月28日，黄金价格再创新高，伦敦黄金市场协会（LBMA）黄金下午定盘价达到了1,940.9美元/盎司，并在日内触及了1,981.3美元/盎司的高位。

Gold broke a new high on 28 July, reaching US$1,940.9/oz

on the LBMA Gold Price PM (PM Price) and topping US$1,981.3/oz intra-day.

这超过了2011年9月5日下午定盘价创下的1,895.0美元/盎司的纪录，也超过了次日亚洲交易时段1,921.2美元/盎司的日内高点。

This exceeded the previous record of US$1,895.0/oz set by the PM Price on 5 September 2011 and the US$1,921.2/oz intra-day high the following day during Asian trading hours.

面对这一里程碑，投资者提出了两个关键问题，在此我们将进行探讨：

On the heels of this milestone, investors are asking two key questions, which we explore in this report：

这与之前的高点相比有何区别？金价会持续上涨吗？

How does this compare to previous highs? Is the price rally sustainable？

从历史上看，我们仍处于周期的早期

Historically early in the cycle

2020年初至今，黄金的表现始终令人瞩目。截至7月28日，美元金价上涨了27%，明显超过了所有主要资产。

Gold’s performance so far in 2020 has been remarkable. As of 28 July, it is up by 27%, significantly outpacing all major assets.

以下因素共同推动了金价的上涨：高度的不确定性，极低的利率，积极的价格势头。

This move up has been driven by a combination of: high uncertainty, very low interest rates, and positive price momentum.

而所有这些因素，同时又支撑了黄金的投资需求。但我们有理由相信，我们可能仍处于周期的早期。

All of which are supportive of investment demand. But there are reasons to believe that we may still be early in the cycle.

新冠肺炎疫情远未结束，更重要的是，其对全球经济的影响尚未确定。

The COVID-19 pandemic is far from over and, more importantly, its impact on the global economy is yet to be determined.

现有迹象表明，中国、韩国、德国和一些其他欧洲国家的情况已经开始转好。

There are indications that some countries like China, South Korea, Germany and other European nations have started to turn a corner.

然而在全球层面上，快速复苏的初步希望已荡然无存。相反，市场参与者正准备迎接坎坷的道路和更长的复苏之路。

However, at a global level, early hopes of a fast recovery are all but gone. Instead, market participants are bracing for a bumpy ride and a longer road to recovery.

各国央行一直在大幅降息，通常还结合了定量宽松和其他非传统的政策措施。各国政府还批准了大规模的救助计划，以支持本国经济。而且可能还需要更多措施才能缓解经济状况。

Central banks have aggressively cut interest rates, often in combination with quantitative easing and other nontraditional policy measures Governments have also approved massive rescue packages to support their local economies. And much more may be needed.

这些举措加剧了人们的担忧：宽松的货币政策(而非基本面因素)正在推动股市反弹，而所有这些向金融体系注入的额外资金可能会导致非常高的通胀，或至少导致货币贬值。

These initiatives have increased concerns that easy money, rather than fundamentals, is fuelling the stock market rally and that all the extra money being pumped into the system may result in very high inflation or, at the very least, currency debasements.

客观来说，全球金融危机期间，2008年初的金价在900美元/盎司左右，而在仍受金融危机余波影响的三年后，金价相较该水平上涨了两倍有余。

To put things into perspective, the gold price more than doubled from approximately US$900/oz in early 2008 to its high more than three years later in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis.

与之形成对比的是，从新冠肺炎疫情爆发到现在，金价只上涨了不到30%。

In contrast, it has increased by just under 30% since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

此外，经通胀调整后，目前的黄金价格其实要比2011年的水平低200美元，也远低于1980年1月21日的最高纪录水平，相当于现在的约2,800美元/盎司。

Additionally, adjusted for inflation, the gold price today is~US$200 shy of the 2011 level and well below its 21 January 1980 record high equivalent to approximately US$2,800/oz in today’s money.

实际的黄金价格是根据美国劳工统计局发布的经季节性调整的美国城市消费者价格指数（CPI）城市消费者指数计算得出。

Real gold prices computed using the seasonally adjusted US CPI Urban Consumers Index published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

广泛的投资者基础

A widespread investor base

从历史上看，黄金的价格表现与黄金衍生品市场的仓位之间呈正相关。

Historically, there is a positive correlation between gold’s price performance and positioning in the gold derivatives market.

然而根据持仓（COT）报告显示，今年的大部分时间里,黄金净多头仓位（通常伴随着更多的投机交易活动）在随着金价的上涨而下降。

For most of this year, however, net long positions based on the Commitment of Traders (COT) report – usually associated with more speculative trading activity – were falling while the gold price was rising.

这在一定程度上是由于新冠疫情导致黄金市场供应链中断，从而影响了纽约商品交易所（COMEX）期货。

This was due in part to COVID-19-related supply-side chain dislocations in the gold market affecting COMEX futures.

与之相反的是，年初至今黄金ETF及类似产品的流入量创下历史新高，截至7月27日，所有地区黄金ETF资产管理总规模共计增加了478亿美元。

Conversely, gold-backed ETFs and similar products (gold ETFs) have seen record inflows so far this year, collectively adding US$47.8 billion as of 27 July across all regions.

实例研究表明，主要是买入并持有的投资者促成了这一趋势，同时也有证据显示，一些投资者已从黄金期货转向黄金ETF。

Anecdotal evidence suggests that buy-and-hold investors are contributing to this, but also that some investors have pivoted from futures to gold ETFs.

这种转变让市场更加注意到了两者的不同，即黄金ETF依托于实物黄金，而黄金期货既可以用现金交割也可以滚动移仓，仅仅有一小部分进行了实物交割。此外，交易期货还允许更高的杠杆，这令其波动率进一步抬升。

This shift gives rise to a few notably different dynamics, namely, gold ETFs are backed by physical bullion while futures can be cash settled or rolled, and only a fraction result in physical delivery.

黄金消费需求依旧低迷

Consumer demand remains weak

尽管投资者（尤其是西方市场的投资者）已将黄金视为对冲其投资组合风险的一种手段，但由于疫情对经济增长的负面影响，加上严格的封锁措施，今年以来的黄金消费需求已大幅下滑。

While investors, especially in Western markets, have embraced gold as a means to hedge their portfolios, consumer demand so far this year has fallen sharply due to the negative effect of the pandemic on economic growth combined with stringent lockdown measures.

正如我们在《黄金需求趋势》报告中所讨论的，今年上半年全球金饰需求骤降46%，金条与金币投资需求也受到亚洲需求疲弱的拖累下滑了17%。

As we discuss in ourGold Demand Trendsreport, jewellery demand plummeted by 46% in the first half of the year and bar and coin fell by 17% – mostly driven by Asia.

虽然在短期内，消费者更倾向于充当“价格接受者”而不是“价格制定者”的角色，但从长期来看，黄金消费有助于维持黄金市场的健康发展并影响其价格行为。

And while, in the short term, consumers tend to be more ‘price takers’ than ‘price makers’, in the longer term, consumption contributes to the health of the gold market and its price behaviour.

黄金的表现已经加速

Gold’s performance has accelerated

2020年黄金牛市的最新阶段来得很快。金价从1,650美元/盎司升至1,800美元/盎司花了大约四个月的时间，但不到四个星期金价就涨到了1,950美元/盎司。

The latest leg of gold’s 2020 bull run has come fast. It took approximately four months for gold to go from US$1,650/oz to US$1,800/oz but less than four weeks to climb to approximately US$1,950/oz.

虽然这一上涨在很大程度上是由美元的急剧贬值推动的，但黄金的14天相对强弱指数（RSI） 在7月27日达到了88的高点，突出了这一变化的幅度。

While this uptick was driven in good part by a sharp depreciation of the US dollar, the magnitude of the change is highlighted by gold’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI),which reached a high of 88 on 27 July.

这通常被视为市场可能超买的信号。即便如此，黄金3月期和1年期滚动回报率的变动幅度一直小于2个标准差，明显低于之前强劲走势时期的水平。

This is usually seen as a sign that the market could be overbought. That said, gold’s 3-month and 1-year rolling returns have moved by less than two standard deviations and are significantly below levels seen in previous periods of strong movements.

这表明，金价的累计波动幅度并非史无前例。尽管一项资产超过某些相对性能指标是无可避免的，但其增长速度难免也可能导致一段时间内更高的波动性。

This alternative metric suggests that the cumulative magnitude of gold’s move is not unprecedented. Though nothing prevents an asset from outpacing some of these relative performance metrics, the speed of its increase may also result in a period of higher volatility.

过去一个月金价大幅走高，尽管黄金投资获得了足够的支撑，但金价可能会经历一些回调。

Gold has moved sharply higher in the past month and, whilthere is enough support for gold investment, the price may experience some consolidation.

全部围绕基本面

All about fundamentals

黄金投资需求有充足的理由得到支撑。新冠肺炎疫情展现出的一些空前的特性可能会导致结构性变化，从而支持黄金的长期表现。

There’s a strong case for gold investment demand to be well supported. The unprecedented nature of the COVID19 pandemic may impose structural changes that support gold’s performance in the long term.

但黄金的双重特性同时也要求需求的周期性部分(如金饰需求或科技用金)保持稳定，以确保其表现的可持续性。

But gold’s dual nature also requires stability in the cyclical portion of demand –such as jewellery or technology – to ensure a sustainable performance.

我们在过去目睹过这种情况。在全球金融危机期间，新兴市场迅速反弹，帮助维持了黄金的消费需求。

We have seen this in the past. During the Global Financial Crisis, emerging markets rebounded quickly, which helped maintain consumer demand.

与此同时，发达市场的不确定性水平上升，再加上扩张性的货币政策，为黄金的表现提供了良好的支撑。

At the same time, elevated levels of uncertainty in developed markets, combined with expansionary monetary policies,kept gold’s performance well supported.

在中国、德国等一些国家的经济活动已经开始恢复正常化的同时，美国新冠肺炎病例仍在增加，这对美元产生了负面影响。

Signs that economic activity in some countries such as China or Germany is beginning to normalise contrasting with the acceleration of COVID-19 cases in the US is negatively impacting the US dollar.

而走弱的美元环境，加上不断膨胀的赤字和扩张性的货币政策，让投资者有充分的理由将黄金纳入他们的投资组合。

And a weaker dollar environment, combined with ballooning deficits and expansionary monetary policies, is giving investors good reason to add gold to their portfolios.

从历史上看，黄金的表现与需求和供应的不同部分之间有着既定的关联性。而这又会受到四个关键因素的影响：经济扩张、风险和不确定性、机会成本以及势能。

Historically, there has been an established connection between gold’s performance and the differen segments of demand and supply. These, in turn, are influenced by four key drivers: economic expansion, risk and uncertainty, opportunity cost and momentum.

虽然世界黄金协会不预测黄金价格，但我们的线上分析工具Qaurum可以帮助投资者了解黄金在各种宏观经济情景下的表现。

And while the World Gold Council does not forecast the price of gold, our webbased tool Qaurum allows investors to understand how gold may perform under various macro-economic scenarios.